| T O P I C R E V I E W |
| gotwind |
Posted - 12/03/2008 : 17:56:52
In preparation for the summer months, I am going to buy 300-400 watts worth of solar panels.
We have a quite a successful solar panel hunt post
http://gotwind.forumco.com/topic~TOPIC_ID~404.asp
I notice the larger panels are rated at 24v, that isn't a problem.
If anyone has any advice I would appreciate it (I'm U.K based obviously).
Ben.
The Futures Green - Getwind of it. |
| 15 L A T E S T R E P L I E S (Newest First) |
| ghurd |
Posted - 20/03/2008 : 23:57:03
Jeeze. Sorry Ben.
We just keep going and going. My fault. Big fun for me.
Yes about China.
GE, BP, others, are mostly China-made, and for a few years now too!
Prices have fallen quite a % here in the last year. Not nearly to what they should be, but less than they were.
Some China stuff is very nice. Some is useless crap.
Here...
I don't see there becoming an excess supply.
It would be a no-brainer in my market to buy a 50W PV system if PV prices went down to $4/W.
Time to pay-back would be less than 1 year, if gasoline / petrol stays at $3.50 per gallon (here). That means half a GBP per liter.
(now is the time UK guys scream about their petrol prices)
Yes. I am a distributor/wholesaler/dealer/installer.
No. It is not a profitable business.
Yes. I love doing it.
G-
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| BushWhacker |
Posted - 20/03/2008 : 22:30:19
While I couldn't say "no reason" I will say a good part of the reason.
The market forces are ruled by Fear, Greed, Supply, and Demand. It's been a fruit full hobby for a few years, so trust me I know. I'd say the price increase of solar panels is a prime example. Demand will expand supply and there will come a point where the price starts to drop due to an over supply. Remember China wants 'in' on the RE market as well.
Cheers!
BW
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler. - Albert Einstein |
| ghurd |
Posted - 20/03/2008 : 19:15:45
That's what I mean!
Typical 85W PV, 5x5" cells, 300 microns thick. 4.8 cubic centimeters.
36 cells per 12V PV. 174 cubic centimeters per PV.
Best guess at 2.4 grams per cubic centimeter? 418 grams per panel.
Going from $70 to $200 a KG, increases the cost of a 85W PV by $54.
Going from $35 to $200 a KG, increases the cost of a 85W PV by $69.
Going from FREE to $200 a KG, increases the cost of a 85W PV by $84.
(hope I did that right)
There was no reason to go from $230 to $500. Except supply and demand?
G-
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| BushWhacker |
Posted - 20/03/2008 : 05:25:46
http://preview.tinyurl.com/yrbdj8
"SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Global warming is juicing the price of a key ingredient used to make solar panels, raising questions about what the longer-term impact of the current shortage will be.
Polysilicon is an essential raw material in the production of solar cells for panels that convert sunlight to electricity for homes, businesses and farms.
Since 2004, average contract prices for securing long-term supplies of polysilicon have skyrocketed, more than doubling to $70 per kilogram."
BTW this news dates back to May 14, 2007 with spot prices of silicon up to $200 per KG at the time. Near the end of the article is this little tidbit ...
"Polysilicon prices weigh more heavily on solar-panel makers, with the raw material making up 40% to 45% of the cost of goods per solar cell, compared with just 3% to 7% for a microchip."
So when the price of barley doubles due to former barley fields being seeded into corn for ethanol production, I would expect the price of beer to rise substantially. 
Cheers!
(I say that a lot)
BW
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler. - Albert Einstein |
| ghurd |
Posted - 19/03/2008 : 22:54:41
BW,
I disagree. Sort of? Mostly?
Does beer double in price if raw AL rises?
Does bottled beer decrease in price?
The shortage of cheap and suitable silicon made a shortage of cheap PVs.
The price of silicone is almost a footnote.
PVs were formerly made of scrap silicon, on its way to a landfill.
If suitable AL for the frame went up 1,000% the end-user cost of PVs wouldn't double.
And it takes a LOT more kg of AL than silicon.
It was a supply:demand thing. And it still is, or a 40W PV wouldn't be ~3X the cost per watt as a 180W PV.
The silicone per watt is the same. Glass per watt is the same.
It takes less AL per watt on larger PVs, and AL about doubled in price.
Labor cost of a small PV is about the same as a large PV.
I see the real reason the panel price went up is because PV distributors, wholesalers, and retailers had less available to sell.
If a company needs to make 10,000 (GPB/USD/whatever) profit to stay in business, then they will try to make that much, regardless if it is on 1 PV or 10,000. And sometimes there should be a profit. That is the whole idea of a business.
Many of my suppliers went under.
I am not a fan of thin-film because after 10 years, thin-film is a lot more expensive.
Pay 15% more now, and sometimes 15% less now, then pay it all again in 10 years? Not me.
Warranties (of either) are nearly useless.
When a PV fails, either the company was bought-out, or the warranty was somehow voided.
Cheers!
(I always wanted to say that)
G-
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| BushWhacker |
Posted - 16/03/2008 : 23:20:42
Hi ghurd;
Actually the pop in panel price is due to the high demand of silicon used in making the cells. If you look at the share price of Timinco (TIM.T) it has gone ballistic because of increased capacity for producing silicon. AMG in Holland had a nice pop on the same news as well. http://preview.tinyurl.com/2bfye4
I know you are not a fan of thin film solar but the cost per watt is much lower as the demand for silicon is so high, the silicon price has followed.
Cheers!
BW
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler. - Albert Einstein |
| ghurd |
Posted - 16/03/2008 : 16:15:22
dc2000, Those numbers are screwy.
Do they mean we will be able to buy an 80W PV for $24? The Al frame, glass, cardboard box and shipping is much more than that.
Do they mean it costs more than $3 per watt to make current technology cells? Then current PVs would cost a Lot more than they do now.
They picked numbers to compare having totally different meanings.
Just a thought. People holding out for more bang for the buck lost out 5 years ago when prices went from $2.25 to $4.50 a watt.
Mostly for people stumbling upon the thread from Google...
24V. People with 'normal' sized systems should think through the whole "Save Money on Wire" thing.
It doesn't save that much money. What is saved is more than spent on special 24V bits. The 24V bits don't last as long as the system, meaning they need replaced (inverters, CFLs, controllers, etc). 24V is a waste of money for most systems, and it keeps coming back to remind you.
G-
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| dc2000 |
Posted - 15/03/2008 : 10:20:32
hi Bush you are right about computers etc and I do hope Im wrong on the solar argument the problem is solar panels have a long life expectancy 25years+ computers have a short 2year everyone wants bigger and faster even I have been guilty recently of using a megga machine for surfing and email reading
Ben the company is called g24 inovations a link to the cbs news cast
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9uPi32xmD0 |
| BushWhacker |
Posted - 15/03/2008 : 06:46:49
Hey, I can't back it up. Just sharing what I have read.
I'll wait on the simple fact that the article (and product) might have some impact on solar panel pricing. Fair enough if you think it won't. Thats what the free market is all about.
In electronics all I have to say is "look at the price of computers and processing speed over the last few years". I'll just hold my tongue now.
Cheers!
BW
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler. - Albert Einstein |
| gotwind |
Posted - 14/03/2008 : 21:23:52
I think 30 cents per watt is a long way off Bushwacker personally, could be wrong.
dc2000.
I tried googling for the cheap thin film process Factory in Wales U.K, I couldn't find anything unfortunatly - I only live 8 miles from the English Welsh border.
Ben. |
| dc2000 |
Posted - 14/03/2008 : 20:49:15
pinch of salt comes to mind
for years we have heard how some super manufacturing process will make solar cheaper and to date the only time they came cheaper was when the dollar value fell last year
there is a new factory in Wales UK that has a cheap thin film process but they are targeting small mobile chargers rather than large panels quite why celsius would sell at 30 cents a watt is beyond me every man and his dog are paying $3 so why not go in at $1.80 you will still corner the market although it wont make quite as good a headline |
| BushWhacker |
Posted - 14/03/2008 : 02:07:01
http://www.celsias.com
"Their mission: to deliver cost-efficient solar electricity. The Nanosolar company was founded in 2002 and is working to build the world’s largest solar cell factory in California and the world’s largest panel-assembly factory in Germany. They have successfully created a solar coating that is the most cost-efficient solar energy source ever. Their PowerSheet cells contrast the current solar technology systems by reducing the cost of production from $3 a watt to a mere 30 cents per watt. This makes, for the first time in history, solar power cheaper than burning coal."
If the panel is assembled in Germany, perhaps you could work something out to save shipping as you mentioned.
Ben you are two mouse clicks away from the story. http://preview.tinyurl.com/2v2ptc
I am personally going to hold out for a bit and get far more watts for my buck. (buck is north american slang for money, in case anyone wondered)
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not one bit simpler. - Albert Einstein |
| ghurd |
Posted - 13/03/2008 : 19:49:40
I don't know anymore.
I used to keep track, but it does come down to the panel I get for the price. (except for thin-film, which I won't sell)
I didn't think Evergreen was the 'big boys'. I thought Photowatt / Matrix was far bigger, and made cells for other brands too, then 'Poof'... they closed the factory.
I never did get those skids of PVs that shipped about 2 years ago. Maybe that's why they went under?
(me and 1000 other people like me)
G-
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| dc2000 |
Posted - 13/03/2008 : 13:27:05
The ones ive had so far are 120, 175 and 185 watts with a mix of 12 and 24v they come from a large commercial installer so each panel tends to be over 100watts as soon as I get details on more I will PM |
| gotwind |
Posted - 13/03/2008 : 11:44:27
Hi dc2000
I'd be definatly be interested in those, pm me when you know for sure please, any idea of the wattage rating - 180 ish?
as I said I am looking for around 350 watts total - 12v seems the most appealing.
Ben. |
